ABSTRACT
Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) hit the world in December 2019, and only less than 5% of the 15 million cases were recorded in Africa. A major call for concern was the significant rise from 2% in May 2020 to 4.67% by the end of July 15, 2020. This drastic increase calls for quick intervention in the transmission and control strategy of COVID-19 in Africa. A mathematical model to theoretically investigate the consequence of ignoring asymptomatic cases on COVID-19 spread in Africa is proposed in this study. A qualitative analysis of the model is carried out with and without re-infection, and the reproduction number is obtained under re-infection. The results indicate that increasing case detection to detect asymptomatically infected individuals will be very effective in containing and reducing the burden of COVID-19 in Africa. In addition, the fact that it has not been confirmed whether a recovered individual can be re-infected or not, then enforcing a living condition where recovered individuals are not allowed to mix with the susceptible or exposed individuals will help in containing the spread of COVID-19.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The emergence and rapid global spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) represents a major challenge to health services, and has disrupted social and economic activities worldwide. In Spain, the first pandemic wave started in mid-March 2020 and lasted for 3 months, requiring home confinement and strict lockdown. Following relaxation of the measures during the summer, a second wave commenced in mid-September 2020 and extended until Christmas 2020. METHODS: The two pandemic waves were compared using information collected from rapid diagnostic tests and polymerase chain reaction assays at one university clinic in Madrid, the epicentre of the pandemic in Spain. RESULTS: In total, 1569 individuals (968 during the first wave and 601 during the second wave) were tested for SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies using fingerprick capillary blood. In addition, during the second wave, 346 individuals were tested for SARS-CoV-2-specific antigen using either oral swabs or saliva. The overall seroprevalence of first-time-tested individuals was 12.6% during the first wave and 7.7% during the second wave (P < 0.01). Seroconversions and seroreversions within 6 months occurred at low rates, both below 5%. During the second wave, 3.5% of tested individuals were SARS-CoV-2 antigen positive, with two cases considered as re-infections. Severe clinical symptoms occurred in a greater proportion of cases during the first wave compared with the second wave (27.8% vs 10.6%, respectively; P = 0.03). CONCLUSION: The cumulative seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Madrid at the end of 2020 was approximately 20%. Seroreversions within 6 months occurred in 4% of cases. Seroconversions and re-infections were clinically less severe during the second wave than during the first wave. Hypothetically, a lower viral inoculum as a result of social distancing, increased use of face masks, promotion of outdoor activities and restrictions on gatherings may have contributed to this lower pathogenicity.